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Friday, March 13, 2026 • 12:00 PM ET
Ohio State Buckeyes
@
Michigan Wolverines
+12.5
(-110)
Total
O/U 155
-12.5
(-110)

Quick Stats

Baseline model (see AI Analysis for detailed pick)

Home Cover Prob48.0%
Away Cover Prob52.0%
Edge+2.0%
Model: baseline_v1

Moneylines

Ohio State Buckeyes+637
Michigan Wolverines-950

KenPom Analytics

#26
Rank
#2
21.9
AdjEM
39.3
124.6
AdjO
128.4
102.8
AdjD
89.2
66.2
Tempo
71.5
12.8
SOS
15.6
-0.018
Luck
0.039
21-11
Record
29-2
Data from KenPom.com

AI Analysis

* = analysis exists

💰
Recommended Bet
Away Spread
72%
confidence

Key Factors

  • •KenPom efficiency margin suggests 12.5-point spread is too large - Michigan's 39.26 vs OSU's 21.86 indicates ~14-15 point neutral site difference
  • •Ohio State's strong adjusted offense (#16 at 124.6) can compete with Michigan's elite but not perfect defense (#3 at 89.2)
  • •Michigan's slight negative luck factor (-0.018) suggests some potential regression while their 29-2 record may be slightly inflated
  • •Slower tempo matchup (Michigan 71.5 vs OSU 66.2) favors the underdog by keeping possessions limited
  • •Conference rivalry context adds variance that typically helps underdogs cover large spreads

Analysis

While Michigan is clearly the superior team with elite efficiency metrics, the 12.5-point spread appears inflated for a conference matchup between teams with competent offenses. Ohio State's ability to score (124.6 AdjO) should keep them competitive enough to stay within this large number, especially in a slower-paced game that limits possessions.

View full AI response
{
    "recommended_bet": "away_spread",
    "confidence_score": 0.72,
    "key_factors": [
        "KenPom efficiency margin suggests 12.5-point spread is too large - Michigan's 39.26 vs OSU's 21.86 indicates ~14-15 point neutral site difference",
        "Ohio State's strong adjusted offense (#16 at 124.6) can compete with Michigan's elite but not perfect defense (#3 at 89.2)",
        "Michigan's slight negative luck factor (-0.018) suggests some potential regression while their 29-2 record may be slightly inflated",
        "Slower tempo matchup (Michigan 71.5 vs OSU 66.2) favors the underdog by keeping possessions limited",
        "Conference rivalry context adds variance that typically helps underdogs cover large spreads"
    ],
    "reasoning": "While Michigan is clearly the superior team with elite efficiency metrics, the 12.5-point spread appears inflated for a conference matchup between teams with competent offenses. Ohio State's ability to score (124.6 AdjO) should keep them competitive enough to stay within this large number, especially in a slower-paced game that limits possessions."
}
Generated: 3/13/20261117 tokens