Skip to main content
← Back to Dashboard
Friday, March 13, 2026 • TBD
Massachusetts Minutemen
@
Toledo Rockets
+3.5
(-110)
Total
O/U 158.5
-3.5
(-110)

Quick Stats

Baseline model (see AI Analysis for detailed pick)

Home Cover Prob54.0%
Away Cover Prob46.0%
Edge+4.0%
Model: baseline_v1

Moneylines

Massachusetts Minutemen+145
Toledo Rockets-165

KenPom Analytics

#195
Rank
#133
-2.3
AdjEM
2.6
109.4
AdjO
115.0
111.7
AdjD
112.3
69.9
Tempo
67.9
-4.0
SOS
-1.3
-0.046
Luck
-0.049
17-15
Record
18-14
Data from KenPom.com

AI Analysis

* = analysis exists

💰
Recommended Bet
Away Spread
65%
confidence

Key Factors

  • •Toledo's offensive advantage (115.0 vs UMass 111.7 defense) creates significant scoring edge
  • •UMass gets 3.5 points but Toledo's KenPom efficiency margin (+2.64 vs -2.3) suggests ~5 point raw advantage
  • •Both teams have negative luck factors indicating recent underperformance may continue
  • •UMass plays faster tempo (69.9 vs 67.9) which could neutralize Toledo's home court advantage
  • •Toledo's poor defense (#239) keeps this game competitive despite offensive edge

Analysis

The KenPom efficiency differential suggests Toledo should win by approximately 5 points on a neutral court, making the 3.5 point spread favorable to UMass. While Toledo has the better offense, their defensive weaknesses and UMass's faster tempo create value on the road dog getting points.

View full AI response
{
    "recommended_bet": "away_spread",
    "confidence_score": 0.65,
    "key_factors": [
        "Toledo's offensive advantage (115.0 vs UMass 111.7 defense) creates significant scoring edge",
        "UMass gets 3.5 points but Toledo's KenPom efficiency margin (+2.64 vs -2.3) suggests ~5 point raw advantage",
        "Both teams have negative luck factors indicating recent underperformance may continue",
        "UMass plays faster tempo (69.9 vs 67.9) which could neutralize Toledo's home court advantage",
        "Toledo's poor defense (#239) keeps this game competitive despite offensive edge"
    ],
    "reasoning": "The KenPom efficiency differential suggests Toledo should win by approximately 5 points on a neutral court, making the 3.5 point spread favorable to UMass. While Toledo has the better offense, their defensive weaknesses and UMass's faster tempo create value on the road dog getting points."
}
Generated: 3/13/20261060 tokens